2024 Us Election Projections. An earlier version of a chart showing projections if the polls changed or missed in donald trump’s favor misstated the number of electoral votes that would be won by each candidate. Our model currently predicts that donald trump has a 54% chance of winning.

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning.